Somalia – climate related security risk assessment
december 2018
This report for The Expert Working Group on Climate-related Security Risks co-authored by Roger Middleton, Camilla Born, Pernilla Nordqvist, and Karolina Eklöw explores the interaction of climate change with Somalia’s conflict and political system.
Somalia is making significant progress towards a durable peace after decades of conflict.However, progress is extremely fragile; formal governance structures are contested and community capability and resilience to deal with shocks and disputes is low. As Somalia decides the shape of its future developmental and political model, climate-related security risks add a further dimension to the country’s fragility. A high carbon development path presents a range of cascading risks, from affecting livelihoods to compromising national stability. Climate-positive development, by contrast, could offer opportunities to further stabilize the country, and strengthen community and state resilience.
The report identifies four priority risk areas and offers a set of suggested mitigation actions.
About the Expert Group:
The Expert Working Group on Climate-related Security Risks aims to produce high-quality and policy-relevant assessments of climate-related security risks, which can strengthen decision-making and programming on those risks within the United Nations. In 2018, the expert working group – together with external researchers and the working group secretariat – have produced research on four geographies: Iraq, Lake Chad, Somalia, Central Asia. The reports build on research and insights from the field to provide integrated risk assessments of climate-related change and security – as well as other social, political and economic aspects.